Whalor Setup Recap: September 4, 2026

Session price action

On September 4, 2026, the major indices exhibited divergent intraday movement. $SPY opened at 772.01, traded within a session range of 769.00 to 772.87, and closed at 770.05. This represented a decline of -0.25% from the open, with the index closing below its session VWAP of 770.41. Meanwhile, $QQQ opened at 719.35, fluctuated between 716.56 and 721.86, and closed slightly down from its open at 718.76 (-0.08%), finishing above its session VWAP of 718.54. $IWM showed the most relative strength, opening at 293.70, trading between 293.56 and 296.18, and closing near its session high at 295.92 (+0.76% from the open, closing above session VWAP of 295.39).

Why the setups fired

Three bearish setups were triggered during the session based on intraday technical levels:

• $SPY fired a bearish failed_breakout_breakdown_trap near 770.38, triggered by a resistance trap rejection, 5-minute failed breakout, and a 1-minute failed breakout loss.
• $QQQ triggered a bearish zero_dte_ema13_rejection near 716.65, which fired on a 5-minute EMA13 resistance reaction and a subsequent 1-minute EMA reaction low break.
• $IWM fired a bearish failed_breakout_breakdown_trap near 295.15, triggered by a resistance trap rejection, 5-minute failed breakout, and a 1-minute failed breakout loss.

What the outcomes showed

Today's session resolved 3 setups with 1 profitable outcome and 2 losses, resulting in a 33.3% win rate. The one-contract modeled P&L for the day was -42 dollars, with an average tracked peak of +60.3% across all setups. One setup reached a peak of +100% or more.

• The $SPY $770 PUT setup was successful, reaching a tracked peak of +166% and resulting in a +100% return as profit was taken.
• The $QQQ $717 PUT setup failed to establish downward momentum, reaching a tracked peak of only +7% before stopping out at -65%.
• The $IWM $295 PUT setup also failed to develop, peaking at +8% before stopping out at -65%.

Despite today's net negative session, the Month-to-Date (MTD) record through this session remains positive. Across 12 resolved setups, 8 have been profitable, yielding a 66.7% win rate and a one-contract modeled P&L of +93 dollars.

What traders can learn

The day's results emphasize the impact of divergence between indices. The bearish setup on $SPY succeeded because the index remained weak, closing below its session VWAP. Conversely, the bearish setup on $IWM failed as the index showed sustained relative strength, closing up +0.76% from its open and well above its VWAP. This demonstrates that even identical setup types (like the failed breakout trap on $SPY and $IWM) can yield opposite results depending on individual index strength. Additionally, using disciplined risk management—such as the stops executed on $QQQ and $IWM—is critical to limiting capital damage when a setup fails to run. Note that tracked peaks represent maximum theoretical moves and are not guaranteed or achievable exits.

We invite you to review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.

Month-to-date record

Through September 4, 2026, Whalor has recorded 8 profitable outcomes and 4 losses across 12 resolved setups (66.7% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +93 dollars under the published methodology below.

Every resolved setup

Contract	Setup	Outcome	Return	Tracked peak
$SPY $770 PUT · 2026-09-04	failed_breakout_breakdown_trap: resistance_trap_rejection / 5m_failed_breakout / 1m_failed_breakout_loss	PROFIT TAKEN	+100%	+166%
$QQQ $717 PUT · 2026-09-04	zero_dte_ema13_rejection: ema13_resistance_reaction / 5m_ema13_rejection / 1m_ema_reaction_low_break	STOPPED OUT	-65%	+7%
$IWM $295 PUT · 2026-09-04	failed_breakout_breakdown_trap: resistance_trap_rejection / 5m_failed_breakout / 1m_failed_breakout_loss	STOPPED OUT	-65%	+8%

Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.