Whalor Setup Recap: August 19, 2026

Session price action

On August 19, 2026, all three major index ETFs closed lower relative to their opening prices and finished the session below their respective volume-weighted average prices (VWAP).

• $SPY opened at 770.36, traded within an intraday range of 768.10 to 772.47, and closed at 769.18. This represented a decline of 0.15% from the open, with the closing price landing below the session VWAP of 769.82.
• $QQQ opened at 720.39, moved between a low of 712.61 and a high of 721.50, and closed at 716.51. This marked a 0.54% drop from the open, with the price closing just under the session VWAP of 716.52.
• $IWM opened at 302.88, traded through a range of 301.23 to 303.41, and ended the session at 301.72. This was a 0.38% decrease from the open, closing below the session VWAP of 302.20.

Why the setups fired

Two bearish setups were triggered during the session as a result of intraday VWAP rejections:

• $SPY triggered a bearish vwap_reclaim_rejection setup (consisting of vwap_reclaim_failed / 5m_vwap_failed_reclaim / 1m_vwap_rejection_low_break) near the 768.28 level.
• $QQQ triggered an identical bearish vwap_reclaim_rejection setup near 718.27, following a failed 5-minute VWAP reclaim and a subsequent 1-minute rejection low break.

What the outcomes showed

Today's two resolved setups yielded a 50.0% win rate, with one profitable outcome and one loss. The daily one-contract modeled P&L ended at +69 dollars, with an average tracked peak of +29.9%. No setups reached a +100% return.

• The $SPY $765 Put (expiring 2026-08-20) was stopped out, resulting in a loss of -65% after reaching a tracked peak of +6%.
• The $QQQ $715 Put (expiring 2026-08-21) hit its profit target, returning +50% after reaching a tracked peak of +53%.

These results bring the month-to-date record through this session to 74 resolved setups, with 49 profitable and 25 losses, representing a 66.2% win rate and a one-contract modeled P&L of +1682 dollars.

What traders can learn

This session demonstrates how identical technical setups in highly correlated indexes can lead to divergent outcomes depending on index-specific price ranges.

While both $SPY and $QQQ closed below their session VWAPs, $QQQ experienced a deeper intraday selloff (-0.54% from the open) and a wider downward range, which allowed the $QQQ $715 Put to secure its +50% profit target. Conversely, $SPY experienced a much shallower overall decline (-0.15% from the open) and traded up to a high of 772.47 early in the session. This upward volatility within $SPY's range triggered the stop-out on the $SPY $765 Put before the index could sustain a downward move.

Traders should also note that the tracked peak represents the maximum theoretical value of the contract during the tracking window and is not a guaranteed or achievable exit point.

We invite you to review every setup and its detailed stock-candle outcome replay directly in the Whalor app.

Month-to-date record

Through August 19, 2026, Whalor has recorded 49 profitable outcomes and 25 losses across 74 resolved setups (66.2% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +1682 dollars under the published methodology below.

Every resolved setup

Contract	Setup	Outcome	Return	Tracked peak
$SPY $765 PUT · 2026-08-20	vwap_reclaim_rejection: vwap_reclaim_failed / 5m_vwap_failed_reclaim / 1m_vwap_rejection_low_break	STOPPED OUT	-65%	+6%
$QQQ $715 PUT · 2026-08-21	vwap_reclaim_rejection: vwap_reclaim_failed / 5m_vwap_failed_reclaim / 1m_vwap_rejection_low_break	PROFIT TAKEN	+50%	+53%

Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.