setup-recap
Whalor Setup Recap: August 18, 2026
5 resolved options setups, 2 profitable outcomes, 40% profitable, plus price action, alert rationale, and the complete contract-by-contract receipts.
Session price action
On August 18, 2026, major indices experienced downward movement relative to their opening prices, with most closing below their session Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP). $SPY opened at 768.70, traded within a range of 766.92 to 769.50, and closed at 767.36. This represented a decline of 0.17% from the open, with the price closing below the session VWAP of 768.06. $QQQ opened at 720.21, fluctuated between 715.92 and 722.13, and closed at 717.51, which was 0.37% below the open and below the session VWAP of 718.32. $IWM showed the largest decline from its open, starting at 302.45, trading between 300.11 and 303.15, and closing at 300.18 (-0.75% from the open, below the session VWAP of 301.20). Bucking the trend of closing below VWAP, $NVDA opened at 220.45, traded between 218.69 and 221.64, and closed at 219.85 (-0.27% from the open, but above its session VWAP of 219.80).
Why the setups fired
Five distinct setups triggered during the session based on intraday price action. In the bearish direction, $QQQ fired a vwap_reclaim_rejection setup near 719.43 as the price lost VWAP on multiple timeframes. $IWM triggered a bearish ema_pullback_continuation setup near 301.77, indicating a rejection at the 5-minute 21 EMA. $SPY fired a bearish support_resistance_retest near 768.54 following a 15-minute level loss.
On the bullish side, $NVDA triggered a failed_breakout_breakdown_trap near 226.98, anticipating a support reclaim. Additionally, $QQQ fired a bullish vwap_reclaim_rejection near 733.67 as price action attempted to hold VWAP.
What the outcomes showed
Of the 5 resolved setups, 2 were profitable and 3 resulted in losses, representing a 40.0% win rate for the session. This daily performance yielded a one-contract modeled P&L of -$361. Despite today's results, the month-to-date record remains positive with a 64.9% win rate (48 wins, 26 losses) and a modeled P&L of +$446 across 74 resolved setups.
The two successful setups were both bearish plays. The $QQQ $718 PUT reached a tracked peak of +113% before securing a +100% profit-taken outcome. The $IWM $302 PUT saw its tracked peak reach +309% and also hit its +100% profit target. The remaining three setups resulted in -65% stop-outs: the bearish $SPY $768 PUT (tracked peak +25%), the bullish $NVDA $225 CALL (tracked peak +15%), and the bullish $QQQ $740 CALL (tracked peak +12%).
What traders can learn
This session highlights the importance of strict risk management and the reality of intraday volatility. While the overall market trend favored short positions—enabling the bearish $QQQ and $IWM setups to hit their +100% targets—not all bearish plays succeeded, as demonstrated by the $SPY PUT stopping out. Furthermore, counter-trend bullish setups on $NVDA and $QQQ struggled to find momentum, leading to quick stop-outs. While tracked peaks show the maximum theoretical performance of a setup, they do not represent achievable exits. Relying on disciplined risk-reward parameters helped mitigate the day's losses.
We invite you to review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.
Month-to-date record
Through August 18, 2026, Whalor has recorded 48 profitable outcomes and 26 losses across 74 resolved setups (64.9% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +446 dollars under the published methodology below.
Every resolved setup
| Contract | Setup | Outcome | Return | Tracked peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $NVDA $225 CALL · 2026-08-19 | failed_breakout_breakdown_trap: support_trap_reclaim / 5m_failed_breakdown / 1m_failed_breakdown_reclaim | STOPPED OUT | -65% | +15% |
| $QQQ $740 CALL · 2026-08-21 | vwap_reclaim_rejection: vwap_reclaim_held / 5m_vwap_reclaim_retest_hold / 1m_vwap_retest_high_break | STOPPED OUT | -65% | +12% |
| $QQQ $718 PUT · 2026-08-18 | vwap_reclaim_rejection: vwap_lost / 5m_vwap_rejection / 1m_vwap_loss | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +113% |
| $IWM $302 PUT · 2026-08-18 | ema_pullback_continuation: 15m_trend_supportive / 5m_21ema_pullback_reject / 1m_pullback_rejection | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +309% |
| $SPY $768 PUT · 2026-08-18 | support_resistance_retest: 15m_level_loss / 5m_retest_or_break / 1m_level_loss | STOPPED OUT | -65% | +25% |
Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.