setup-recap
Whalor Setup Recap: October 1, 2026
3 resolved options setups, 2 profitable outcomes, 67% profitable, plus price action, alert rationale, and the complete contract-by-contract receipts.
Session price action
Today’s resolved set was mixed, with 3 setups resolved, 2 profitable, and 1 loss, for a 66.7% win rate. Despite the win rate, the one-contract modeled P&L was -$162, showing that the loss outweighed the two gains in dollar terms. The average tracked peak across the setups was +41.6%, and none reached +100%.
In the regular session, SPY opened 764.36, traded 758.79–765.65, and closed 764.27, essentially flat from the open and above VWAP 762.55. QQQ opened 742.51, traded 736.25–744.67, and closed 742.46, also essentially flat and above VWAP 740.69. IWM opened 277.36, traded 275.45–280.61, and closed 279.13, finishing +0.64% from the open and above VWAP 278.00. MSFT opened 519.88, traded 512.17–522.85, and closed 513.28, down 1.27% and below VWAP 516.13.
Why the setups fired
The setups aligned with intraday price behavior relative to their triggers:
- IWM fired a bearish Opening Range Retest Confirmation near 276.45.
- QQQ fired a bearish 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection setup near 739.07, described as 15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break.
- MSFT fired a bullish opening_drive_reversal near 519.12, described as opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim_stock_profile_v1.
The price action on the session gives context for those triggers: QQQ and IWM both spent the day above VWAP by the close, while MSFT finished below VWAP after trading lower than the open.
What the outcomes showed
The receipts show a clear split between the profitable bearish setups and the losing bullish one:
- IWM $276 PUT · 2026-10-01: PROFIT TAKEN, +50%, tracked peak +75%
- QQQ $737 PUT · 2026-10-01: PROFIT TAKEN, +30%, tracked peak +50%
- MSFT $520 CALL · 2026-10-02: STOPPED OUT, -65%, tracked peak +0%
Month to date through this session, the record is the same: 3 resolved, 2 profitable, 1 loss, 66.7% win rate, and - $162 modeled P&L.
What traders can learn
Today’s journal shows that a respectable win rate does not guarantee positive modeled P&L. The two winning put setups in IWM and QQQ were resolved profitably, while the MSFT call was stopped out and reduced the session’s dollar result. The tracked peaks also show that price can move meaningfully after entry without that move being the final outcome: the best tracked peak was +75% on IWM, followed by +50% on QQQ, while MSFT never reached a positive tracked peak.
For review, the key takeaway is to compare each setup’s trigger, the intraday path, and the actual receipt outcome rather than relying on the session’s headline direction alone. Please review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.
Month-to-date record
Through October 1, 2026, Whalor has recorded 2 profitable outcomes and 1 losses across 3 resolved setups (66.7% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is -162 dollars under the published methodology below.
Every resolved setup
| Contract | Setup | Outcome | Return | Tracked peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $IWM $276 PUT · 2026-10-01 | Opening Range Retest Confirmation | PROFIT TAKEN | +50% | +75% |
| $QQQ $737 PUT · 2026-10-01 | 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break | PROFIT TAKEN | +30% | +50% |
| $MSFT $520 CALL · 2026-10-02 | opening_drive_reversal: opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim_stock_profile_v1 | STOPPED OUT | -65% | +0% |
Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.