setup-recap
Whalor Setup Recap: September 29, 2026
3 resolved options setups, 2 profitable outcomes, 67% profitable, plus price action, alert rationale, and the complete contract-by-contract receipts.
Session price action
Today’s resolved setups came during a mixed-to-soft session for the major indices, with each index closing below its open but still above session VWAP. $SPY opened at 766.83, traded 762.35-766.98, and closed 764.80, down 0.26% from the open and above VWAP at 764.22. $QQQ opened 740.14, traded 735.34-740.58, and closed 738.57, down 0.21% from the open and above VWAP at 737.76. $IWM opened 280.25, traded 277.41-281.05, and closed 279.21, down 0.37% from the open and above VWAP at 278.72. $MSFT was the relative standout, opening 508.31, trading 502.40-513.64, and closing 508.92, up 0.12% from the open and above VWAP at 508.57.
Across the session, Whalor resolved 3 setups, with 2 profitable and 1 loss, for a 66.7% win rate and +$114 modeled one-contract P&L. The average tracked peak across the three setups was +125.9%, and 2 setups reached +100%.
Why the setups fired
The bearish setup came on $IWM, where a 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection fired near 279.64. The trigger was built from a 15m_sma200_rejection, 5m_lower_high_or_rejection, and 1m_bearish_trigger. That aligned with a session where IWM traded below its open and finished near the lower half of its range, even though it held above VWAP at the close.
Two bullish opening_drive_reversal setups fired on the index and stock side. $MSFT triggered near 505.19 on an opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim_stock_profile_v1 sequence. $SPY triggered near 765.63 on an opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim sequence. Both names finished the day above VWAP, but SPY still closed below its open.
What the outcomes showed
The $IWM $280 PUT closed as profit taken for +100%, with a tracked peak of +219%. The $MSFT $505 CALL also closed as profit taken for +100%, with a tracked peak of +160%. The $SPY $765 CALL was the loss, stopped out at -65%, with a tracked peak of -0%.
Month to date through this session, Whalor has resolved 61 setups, with 37 profitable and 24 losses, a 60.7% win rate, and +$675 modeled one-contract P&L.
What traders can learn
Today reinforced that setup direction and session behavior can line up without guaranteeing a win. The bearish IWM trigger matched a weak close relative to the open, while the two bullish opening-drive reversals were both able to reach +100% before being marked as profit taken. At the same time, SPY shows the other side of the distribution: a valid trigger can still fail and stop out even when price finishes above VWAP.
The key takeaway is not that VWAP or the open alone decides the result, but that the setup’s trigger, the day’s price action, and the option outcome should be reviewed together. Please review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.
Month-to-date record
Through September 29, 2026, Whalor has recorded 37 profitable outcomes and 24 losses across 61 resolved setups (60.7% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +675 dollars under the published methodology below.
Every resolved setup
| Contract | Setup | Outcome | Return | Tracked peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $IWM $280 PUT · 2026-09-29 | 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 5m_lower_high_or_rejection / 1m_bearish_trigger | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +219% |
| $MSFT $505 CALL · 2026-09-30 | opening_drive_reversal: opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim_stock_profile_v1 | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +160% |
| $SPY $765 CALL · 2026-09-29 | opening_drive_reversal: opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim | STOPPED OUT | -65% | -0% |
Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.