Whalor Setup Recap: September 28, 2026

Session price action

Today’s resolved setups came during a mixed index session. SPY opened at 768.35, traded 763.72–769.54, and closed at 765.58, down 0.36% from the open and below session VWAP (766.42). QQQ opened at 740.46, traded 731.63–741.42, and closed at 736.66, down 0.51% from the open but slightly above VWAP (736.57). IWM opened at 280.33, traded 278.80–281.93, and closed at 280.09, down 0.09% from the open and slightly above VWAP (280.07).

For the session, Whalor resolved 2 setups, with 1 winner and 1 loser. That produced a 50.0% win rate and a one-contract modeled P&L of -$27. The average tracked peak across the two setups was +128.7%, and 1 setup reached +100%.

Why the setups fired

Both resolved setups were on SPY and reflected opposite intraday reads around the same area near 767.64–767.91.

• The bearish setup was a 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection:
  15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break near 767.64.
  This setup aligned with a rejection framework around the 200-period moving average on both the 15-minute and 1-minute charts.

• The bullish setup was an opening_drive_reversal:
  opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim near 767.91.
  This setup was triggered off an opening-drive reversal structure after a washout and reclaim attempt.

The session’s price action fits the idea that SPY spent the day moving around a key intraday area and ultimately closed weaker, though the setups themselves should be read as separate signals rather than treated as proof of direction.

What the outcomes showed

The bearish $SPY $767 PUT finished as profit taken for +100%, with a tracked peak of +254%. The bullish $SPY $768 CALL was stopped out for -65%, with a tracked peak of +4%.

That contrast is important: both setups came from the same underlying and close in time, but only the bearish thesis converted into a realized gain. The bullish setup did not hold, even though it briefly tracked a small positive peak.

On the month, Whalor’s results through this session stand at 58 resolved setups, 35 profitable, 23 losses, a 60.3% win rate, and + $424 in one-contract modeled P&L.

What traders can learn

This session showed that intraday structure can produce valid setups in both directions around the same price zone, but outcomes can still diverge sharply. A setup reaching a large tracked peak does not mean that peak was captured, and a small tracked peak can still end in a stop-out.

For reviewing performance, the most useful lens is the combination of trigger context, realized outcome, and trade management result—not just the peak excursion. Today’s pair also reinforced that a session can end with a negative modeled P&L even when one setup delivered a strong winner.

Review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.

Month-to-date record

Through September 28, 2026, Whalor has recorded 35 profitable outcomes and 23 losses across 58 resolved setups (60.3% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +424 dollars under the published methodology below.

Every resolved setup

Contract	Setup	Outcome	Return	Tracked peak
$SPY $767 PUT · 2026-09-28	15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break	PROFIT TAKEN	+100%	+254%
$SPY $768 CALL · 2026-09-28	opening_drive_reversal: opening_drive_washout_reversing / opening_drive_down_reclaim / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_reclaim	STOPPED OUT	-65%	+4%

Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.