setup-recap
Whalor Setup Recap: September 25, 2026
3 resolved options setups, 3 profitable outcomes, 100% profitable, plus price action, alert rationale, and the complete contract-by-contract receipts.
Session price action
Today’s resolved setups all finished green: 3 of 3 profitable, for a 100.0% win rate and a one-contract modeled P&L of +$203. The average tracked peak across the three trades was +186.7%, and all three setups reached at least +100% at some point.
The broader tape was mixed but generally constructive in the major index ETFs. $SPY opened at 768.78, ranged from 766.29 to 772.28, and closed at 771.40, up 0.34% from the open and above session VWAP at 770.05. $QQQ also finished above VWAP, closing at 744.58 after a 742.83 open and a 739.64–745.91 range. $IWM was nearly flat, closing at 282.17, down 0.06% from the open but still above VWAP at 282.05. $TSLA was the clear outlier, opening at 384.62, trading down to 367.67, and closing at 372.00, down 3.28% and below VWAP at 372.74.
Why the setups fired
Each resolved setup matched a bearish trigger structure. $IWM fired a 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection near 281.99, defined by a 15m_sma200_rejection, 5m_lower_high_or_rejection, and 1m_bearish_trigger. $TSLA fired the same bearish 15-minute rejection structure near 374.96. $SPY fired a bearish opening_drive_reversal near 769.25, with an opening_drive_spike_reversing, opening_drive_up_rejection, and 1m_opening_drive_reversal_rejection.
The day’s price action was consistent with those trigger directions in a straightforward way: SPY and IWM both traded through their intraday ranges while ending above VWAP, but the setups were based on rejection patterns rather than outright trend continuation. TSLA showed the clearest downside follow-through relative to its bearish setup, ending the session materially lower and below VWAP.
What the outcomes showed
All three contracts were closed at +100%:
- $IWM $282 PUT — tracked peak +142%
- $TSLA $375 PUT — tracked peak +201%
- $SPY $768 PUT — tracked peak +217%
The important distinction is that the tracked peak was higher than the reported take-profit outcome on every trade, but it should not be treated as an achievable exit. It is simply the recorded peak performance during the life of each setup.
Month to date, Whalor now shows 56 resolved setups, 34 profitable, 22 losses, a 60.7% win rate, and +$451 in one-contract modeled P&L. That means today improved the month’s record, but it did not erase the fact that losses remain part of the sample.
What traders can learn
Today’s results reinforce a simple point: bearish rejection setups can still work even when the broader index tape is not aggressively weak, as long as the trigger pattern appears and price respects the rejection structure. The day also shows why it helps to separate the setup signal from the session’s overall direction—SPY and IWM finished only slightly changed, yet the bearish setups still resolved profitably.
For traders reviewing the day, the most useful takeaway is to compare the setup trigger, the intraday path, and the realized outcome without assuming the peak move was the exit. Review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.
Month-to-date record
Through September 25, 2026, Whalor has recorded 34 profitable outcomes and 22 losses across 56 resolved setups (60.7% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +451 dollars under the published methodology below.
Every resolved setup
| Contract | Setup | Outcome | Return | Tracked peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $IWM $282 PUT · 2026-09-25 | 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 5m_lower_high_or_rejection / 1m_bearish_trigger | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +142% |
| $TSLA $375 PUT · 2026-09-25 | 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 5m_lower_high_or_rejection / 1m_bearish_trigger | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +201% |
| $SPY $768 PUT · 2026-09-25 | opening_drive_reversal: opening_drive_spike_reversing / opening_drive_up_rejection / 1m_opening_drive_reversal_rejection | PROFIT TAKEN | +100% | +217% |
Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.