Whalor Setup Recap: September 23, 2026

Session price action

Today’s resolved set was cleanly aligned with a weak-to-lower session in the names that triggered. $SPY opened at 772.79, traded 766.50–773.05, and closed at 767.63, down 0.67% from the open and below session VWAP of 768.53. $IWM opened at 285.99, traded 281.84–286.18, and closed at 282.03, down 1.38% from the open and below VWAP of 283.03. $NVDA opened at 228.03, traded 224.02–228.95, and closed at 225.55, down 1.09% from the open and below VWAP of 225.80. $QQQ also finished lower on the day, closing at 741.15 after trading 738.19–747.13, though it ended just above VWAP at 740.99.

For Whalor’s resolved setups, the session produced 3 winners out of 3 resolved setups, a 100.0% win rate for the day, with one-contract modeled P&L of +125 dollars. The average tracked peak across these setups was +246.2%, and all 3 setups reached at least +100%.

Why the setups fired

Each setup was a bearish reaction structure tied to a nearby reference level:

• $NVDA fired a bearish vwap_reclaim_rejection setup near 227.91, described as a 5m_reference_1m_entry / 5m_vwap_rejection / 1m_vwap_loss setup.
• $SPY fired a bearish 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection setup near 769.20, described as a 15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break setup.
• $IWM fired a bearish 15m_200ma_bounce_rejection setup near 283.99, described as a 15m_sma200_rejection / 5m_lower_high_or_rejection / 1m_bearish_trigger setup.

The common thread was directional rejection near a moving-average or VWAP reference, followed by confirmation on lower-timeframe structure. That is consistent with the day’s broader intraday behavior in SPY, IWM, and NVDA, all of which closed below their session opens and below VWAP.

What the outcomes showed

All three setups resolved profitably and were taken off at +100%:

• $NVDA $227.5 PUT · 2026-09-23: PROFIT TAKEN, return +100%, tracked peak +364%
• $SPY $769 PUT · 2026-09-23: PROFIT TAKEN, return +100%, tracked peak +145%
• $IWM $284 PUT · 2026-09-23: PROFIT TAKEN, return +100%, tracked peak +230%

The tracked peaks show that each contract traded materially beyond the booked result, but those peaks are not the same as realized exits. Month to date, Whalor now sits at 51 resolved setups, 29 profitable, 22 losses, a 56.9% win rate, and one-contract modeled P&L of +171 dollars.

What traders can learn

Today was a straightforward example of bearish rejection setups working in the direction of the closing tape. The best read was not “the market was bearish” in a broad sense, but that the specific setups were triggered by rejection around VWAP or the 200ma and then resolved with follow-through lower in the underlying. The session also shows why it matters to separate tracked peak from realized result: all three setups ran well past +100%, yet the recorded outcome was still the booked +100% on each.

Review every setup and its stock-candle outcome replay in the Whalor app.

Month-to-date record

Through September 23, 2026, Whalor has recorded 29 profitable outcomes and 22 losses across 51 resolved setups (56.9% profitable). The one-contract modeled result is +171 dollars under the published methodology below.

Every resolved setup

Contract	Setup	Outcome	Return	Tracked peak
$NVDA $227.5 PUT · 2026-09-23	vwap_reclaim_rejection: 5m_reference_1m_entry / 5m_vwap_rejection / 1m_vwap_loss	PROFIT TAKEN	+100%	+364%
$SPY $769 PUT · 2026-09-23	15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 1m_sma200_rejection / 1m_fresh_ma_reaction_low_break	PROFIT TAKEN	+100%	+145%
$IWM $284 PUT · 2026-09-23	15m_200ma_bounce_rejection: 15m_sma200_rejection / 5m_lower_high_or_rejection / 1m_bearish_trigger	PROFIT TAKEN	+100%	+230%

Methodology: Modeled P&L assumes one contract per setup. A setup that reached +50% is counted at +50%; otherwise a setup that reached +30% is counted at +30%; all other resolved outcomes use the recorded exit return. Tracked peak is hindsight context, not an assumed exit. Educational only, not financial advice.