zero-dte-weekly-review
Weekly 0DTE Playbook Review: Week of September 14, 2026
Verified SPY, QQQ, IWM, and AMZN 0DTE results across 9 resolved setups, broken down by ticker and strategy cohort.
Weekly 0DTE record
During the week of September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, the Whalor 0DTE playbook recorded 9 resolved setups. Out of these 9 setups, 4 resulted in wins, yielding a win rate of 44.4%. The average recorded return across all setups was +7.2%, while the average tracked peak was +63.7%.
Note on Sample Size: A dataset of 9 resolved setups is extremely small. These results represent a brief performance snapshot and do not constitute proof of a long-term trading edge.
SPY, QQQ, IWM, and AMZN
Performance across individual tickers during this period is detailed below. Each ticker cohort represents an exceptionally small sample size ($n \le 3$), meaning individual outcomes heavily skew the averages.
- IWM ($n=3$ setups): Recorded 2 wins and 1 loss (66.7% win rate). The average recorded return was +45.0%, and the average tracked peak was +104.7%.
- SPY ($n=3$ setups): Recorded 2 wins and 1 loss (66.7% win rate). The average recorded return was +11.7%, with an average tracked peak of +48.2%.
- AMZN ($n=2$ setups): Recorded 0 wins and 2 losses (0.0% win rate). The average recorded return was -20.3%, though the average tracked peak reached +44.3%.
- QQQ ($n=1$ setup): Recorded 0 wins and 1 loss (0.0% win rate). The average recorded return was -65.0%, and the tracked peak reached +26.1%.
Strategy cohorts
The 9 setups were distributed across five distinct strategy cohorts. Because four of these five strategies contain only a single setup ($n=1$), these metrics must be viewed as anecdotal.
- Opening Drive Reversal ($n=5$ setups): This was the most active strategy of the week. It recorded 3 wins and 2 losses (60.0% win rate), with an average recorded return of +14.0% and an average tracked peak of +52.5%.
- Spy Opening Range Retest Confirmation ($n=1$ setup): This single setup resulted in a win (100.0% win rate), achieving a recorded return of +100.0% and a tracked peak of +196.1%.
- Amzn 1m Failed Extension Vwap Reclaim Put ($n=1$ setup): This single setup resulted in a loss (0.0% win rate), with a recorded return of -11.6% and a tracked peak of +18.7%.
- Directional Consensus ($n=1$ setup): This single setup resulted in a loss (0.0% win rate), with a recorded return of -28.9% and a tracked peak of +70.0%.
- Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return ($n=1$ setup): This single setup resulted in a loss (0.0% win rate), with a recorded return of -65.0% and a tracked peak of +26.1%.
What worked
Observed Results: The "Opening Drive Reversal" strategy produced 3 wins out of 5 setups, generating an average return of +14.0% and an average tracked peak of +52.5%. The single setup for "Spy Opening Range Retest Confirmation" achieved a +100.0% recorded return and a peak of +196.1%. On a ticker level, IWM (+45.0% average return) and SPY (+11.7% average return) finished the week with positive net outcomes.
Interpretation: The data indicates that mean-reversion and retest strategies on broad-market index ETFs (IWM and SPY) delivered positive returns during this specific weekly window. However, because the Spy Opening Range Retest Confirmation cohort consists of only one trade, its 100% win rate is a statistical anomaly rather than evidence of a reliable system. While the Opening Drive Reversal strategy shows positive initial metrics across its 5 setups, 5 trials are insufficient to confirm a persistent mathematical edge.
What needs more evidence
Observed Results: The strategies "Amzn 1m Failed Extension Vwap Reclaim Put" ($n=1$), "Directional Consensus" ($n=1$), and "Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return" ($n=1$) all finished the week with negative recorded returns. On a ticker level, AMZN (0.0% win rate, -20.3% average return) and QQQ (0.0% win rate, -65.0% average return) underperformed. Across multiple losing setups, there was a gap between the tracked peak and the final recorded return: the single Directional Consensus setup peaked at +70.0% before closing at -28.9%, and the AMZN setups averaged a peak of +44.3% before closing at a net loss of -20.3%.
Interpretation: The divergence between average tracked peaks and final recorded returns in the losing setups suggests that trade execution, profit-taking rules, or trailing stop management may be eroding performance. For example, the Directional Consensus setup reached a highly profitable peak (+70.0%) but was closed at a significant loss (-28.9%). However, because these cohorts feature sample sizes of only 1 or 2 setups, these results could simply reflect normal variance. More data is required to determine whether the underperformance stems from flawed trade entry criteria or suboptimal trade management.
Next week's checklist
- Collect More Data: Prioritize execution of the "Opening Drive Reversal" strategy to build a larger, statistically significant sample size beyond the current 5 setups.
- Review Profit-Taking Rules: Audit the exit protocols for the "Directional Consensus" and "AMZN" strategies to identify why setups with positive tracked peaks (+70.0% and +44.3% respectively) resolved as net losses.
- Exercise Caution on Single-Setup Strategies: Treat the 100% win rate of the "Spy Opening Range Retest Confirmation" and the 0% win rates of the "QQQ" and "AMZN" strategies as unproven hypotheses until sample sizes reach a minimum of 30 resolved setups.
- Monitor QQQ Drawdowns: Given the -65.0% recorded return on the single QQQ setup, closely monitor risk parameters and position sizing on QQQ failed extension plays to prevent outsized losses while gathering further performance data.
Educational only, not financial advice.
Verified scorecard
Overall: 9 resolved setups, 4 wins, 44.4% win rate, +7.2% average recorded return, +63.7% average tracked peak.
By ticker
| Ticker | Setups | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Avg peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | +45.0% | +104.7% |
| SPY | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | +11.7% | +48.2% |
| AMZN | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | -20.3% | +44.3% |
| QQQ | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -65.0% | +26.1% |
By strategy cohort
| Strategy | Setups | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Avg peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Drive Reversal | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | +14.0% | +52.5% |
| Amzn 1m Failed Extension Vwap Reclaim Put | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -11.6% | +18.7% |
| Directional Consensus | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -28.9% | +70.0% |
| Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -65.0% | +26.1% |
| Spy Opening Range Retest Confirmation | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | +100.0% | +196.1% |