zero-dte-weekly-review
Weekly 0DTE Playbook Review: Week of September 7, 2026
Verified SPY, QQQ, IWM, and AMZN 0DTE results across 17 resolved setups, broken down by ticker and strategy cohort.
Weekly 0DTE record
During the weekly period from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, the Whalor playbook recorded a total of 17 resolved setups. Out of these 17 setups, 9 resulted in wins, yielding a win rate of 52.9%. The overall average recorded return across all setups was +5.6%, while the average tracked peak reached +88.5%.
It is critical to establish that a weekly pool of 17 resolved setups constitutes an extremely small sample size. Consequently, these figures represent a short-term observation of performance and do not serve as statistical proof of a long-term trading edge. The average tracked peak represents the maximum theoretical return observed during the lifetime of the setups, whereas the average recorded return represents the actualized results. The discrepancy between the average recorded return (+5.6%) and the average tracked peak (+88.5%) indicates that setups frequently moved significantly in a favorable direction before actualized exits occurred.
SPY, QQQ, IWM, and AMZN
The ledger tracks performance across four distinct tickers. Due to the low number of setups per ticker, each individual asset class dataset must be treated as a small sample size.
- QQQ (5 setups): Recorded 3 wins out of 5 setups, resulting in a 60.0% win rate. The average recorded return was +10.0%, with an average tracked peak of +50.5%.
- SPY (5 setups): Recorded 2 wins out of 5 setups, resulting in a 40.0% win rate. The average recorded return was -9.0%, despite an average tracked peak of +137.0%.
- Interpretation: The SPY data reveals a stark divergence between potential profit and actualized performance. While setups reached substantial intraday peaks, the final recorded average was negative, suggesting that trailing stops or exit rules did not lock in peak gains.
- IWM (4 setups): Recorded 3 wins out of 4 setups, resulting in a 75.0% win rate. The average recorded return was +47.5%, with an average tracked peak of +127.8%.
- AMZN (3 setups): Recorded 1 win out of 3 setups, resulting in a 33.3% win rate. The average recorded return was -33.3%, with an average tracked peak of +18.4%.
Because no single ticker exceeded 5 setups during this period, these results are highly sensitive to individual trade outcomes and do not establish a reliable trend.
Strategy cohorts
The 17 setups were distributed across 8 distinct strategy cohorts. Every strategy evaluated this week suffers from a lack of statistical volume, with sample sizes ranging from 1 to 6 setups.
- Failed Breakout Breakdown Trap (6 setups): 1 win, 16.7% win rate, -33.3% average return, +89.3% average peak.
- Ema Pullback Continuation (3 setups): 2 wins, 66.7% win rate, -1.7% average return, +28.5% average peak.
- Directional Consensus (2 setups): 1 win, 50.0% win rate, +17.5% average return, +166.0% average peak.
- Opening Drive Reversal (2 setups): 2 wins, 100.0% win rate, +75.0% average return, +115.4% average peak.
- Double Bottom Reversal (1 setup): 0 wins, 0.0% win rate, -65.0% average return, +8.8% average peak.
- Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return (1 setup): 1 win, 100.0% win rate, +50.0% average return, +66.8% average peak.
- Zero Dte Ema13 Loss (1 setup): 1 win, 100.0% win rate, +100.0% average return, +207.1% average peak.
- Zero Dte Ema13 Rejection (1 setup): 1 win, 100.0% win rate, +30.0% average return, +36.9% average peak.
What worked
Based on the observed results, the strategies that produced positive average recorded returns were:
- Opening Drive Reversal: +75.0% average return (2 setups)
- Directional Consensus: +17.5% average return (2 setups)
- Zero Dte Ema13 Loss: +100.0% average return (1 setup)
- Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return: +50.0% average return (1 setup)
- Zero Dte Ema13 Rejection: +30.0% average return (1 setup)
On a ticker basis, IWM (+47.5% average return) and QQQ (+10.0% average return) were the two positive-performing assets.
Interpretation: While these strategies and tickers generated positive recorded returns, the extremely small sample sizes mean these outcomes cannot be interpreted as a verified trading edge. For example, the Zero Dte Ema13 Loss strategy's +100.0% return is derived from a single trade, meaning its success this week may be entirely due to random distribution.
What needs more evidence
Several segments demonstrated negative actualized returns or significant execution drag:
- Failed Breakout Breakdown Trap: This was the largest strategy cohort (6 setups) but delivered a low win rate of 16.7% and an average return of -33.3%.
- Ema Pullback Continuation: Despite a 66.7% win rate across 3 setups, the average return was negative (-1.7%).
- Double Bottom Reversal: This cohort had 1 setup, resulting in a loss of -65.0%.
- AMZN: The underlying ticker underperformed with a -33.3% average return across 3 setups.
Interpretation: The Failed Breakout Breakdown Trap cohort warrants close attention. Despite a negative recorded return of -33.3%, its average tracked peak was +89.3%. This indicates that the setups frequently moved into positive territory before reversing into losses. Similarly, SPY setups reached a high average peak (+137.0%) but finished with a negative average return (-9.0%). This recurring gap across multiple cohorts suggests that current trade management, trailing stop parameters, or profit-taking targets may be failing to secure intraday gains before mean reversion occurs. However, more data is required to confirm this hypothesis.
Next week's checklist
- Monitor Failed Breakout Breakdown Trap execution: Track whether the wide gap between the average tracked peak (+89.3%) and the average return (-33.3%) persists over a larger sample size.
- Investigate SPY exit efficiency: Analyze future SPY setups to determine why an average tracked peak of +137.0% resulted in a negative recorded return of -9.0%.
- Accumulate volume on high-performing cohorts: Continue logging setups for Opening Drive Reversal, Zero Dte Ema13 Loss, and Zero Dte Ema13 Rejection to move past the current small sample sizes (1 to 2 setups) and test for repeatability.
- Review AMZN and Double Bottom Reversal setups: Observe if AMZN and Double Bottom Reversal setups continue to underperform or if their performance normalizes as the sample size increases.
Educational only, not financial advice.
Verified scorecard
Overall: 17 resolved setups, 9 wins, 52.9% win rate, +5.6% average recorded return, +88.5% average tracked peak.
By ticker
| Ticker | Setups | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Avg peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | +10.0% | +50.5% |
| SPY | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | -9.0% | +137.0% |
| IWM | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | +47.5% | +127.8% |
| AMZN | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | -33.3% | +18.4% |
By strategy cohort
| Strategy | Setups | Wins | Win rate | Avg return | Avg peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Failed Breakout Breakdown Trap | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | -33.3% | +89.3% |
| Ema Pullback Continuation | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | -1.7% | +28.5% |
| Directional Consensus | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | +17.5% | +166.0% |
| Opening Drive Reversal | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | +75.0% | +115.4% |
| Double Bottom Reversal | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | -65.0% | +8.8% |
| Qqq 2m Failed Extension Vwap Return | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | +50.0% | +66.8% |
| Zero Dte Ema13 Loss | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | +100.0% | +207.1% |
| Zero Dte Ema13 Rejection | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | +30.0% | +36.9% |