Daily Whale Wrap-Up: February 13, 2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Primary Sentiment: Mixed/Hedged. Today’s flow was dominated by high-notional bearish positioning in Energy and aggressive "dip-buying" in Semiconductors, while Crypto momentum remained unidirectional.

Whale Intent: Institutional actors are heavily hedging or distributing in the Energy sector ($CVX) despite marginal price gains. Conversely, there is clear evidence of accumulation in $NVDA following its 2.19% intraday pullback. $IBIT flow suggests whales are chasing the Bitcoin breakout with zero bearish offset.

Top Conviction Symbols:

1. $CVX: Massive bearish skew ($629.93M bearish premium) despite positive price action.
2. $NVDA: High-conviction bullish flow (92% of premium) on a red day, indicating a "buy the dip" regime.
3. $IBIT: 100% bullish premium concentration following a 5%+ move in the underlying.

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TICKER DEEP DIVE

$CVX (Chevron Corp)

• Trade Aggression: 112 blocks and 103 sweeps. The near 1:1 ratio of blocks to sweeps suggests a mix of negotiated institutional positioning and urgent market-order execution.
• Sentiment Breakdown: $923.22M in total premium makes this the day's primary whale target. Bearish premium ($629.93M) outpaced bullish premium by more than 2:1.
• Analysis: With the stock up 0.66% to $183.61, the heavy bearish flow suggests whales are either locking in profits at these levels or expecting a reversal. The high block count indicates institutional distribution rather than retail speculation.

$UPS (United Parcel Service)

• Trade Aggression: 150 blocks and 140 sweeps. High liquidity event with significant participation across both trade types.
• Sentiment Breakdown: $543.84M total premium. The split is nearly neutral ($289.76M bullish vs $254.08M bearish).
• Analysis: The balanced flow and high volume suggest a large-scale roll of existing positions or a complex multi-leg institutional strategy (straddles/strangles) ahead of a volatility expansion. Whales are not picking a direction here; they are positioning for a range break.

$NVDA (NVIDIA Corp)

• Trade Aggression: 15 blocks and 8 sweeps. While the trade count is lower, the dollar concentration is significant relative to the intraday price drop.
• Sentiment Breakdown: Extremely lopsided. $17.28M in bullish premium against only $1.40M bearish.
• Analysis: $NVDA closed down 2.19% at $182.85, yet the flow was 92% bullish. This is a classic "buy the dip" signature. Whales are aggressively absorbing the sell-off, targeting a recovery toward the $185-$190 range.

$IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust)

• Trade Aggression: 4 blocks and 2 sweeps. Low frequency but high-notional conviction.
• Sentiment Breakdown: 100% Bullish ($16.19M). Zero bearish premium recorded in whale-tier trades.
• Analysis: Despite the 5.18% jump to $38.97, there is no evidence of profit-taking in the options flow. Whales are chasing the momentum, suggesting they anticipate further upside in the underlying BTC spot price.

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MARKET OUTLOOK & WATCHLIST

Sector-Level Observations:

• Energy (Distribution): The $CVX data points to a potential top in the sector. Watch for $XLE to struggle if whale distribution continues.
• Tech/Semis (Accumulation): $NVDA's divergence (price down, bullish flow up) suggests the tech correction is being viewed as a liquidity event for larger buyers.
• Indices (Hedged): $QQQ flow remains slightly bearish ($12.22M vs $8.77M), indicating that while individual names like $NVDA are being bought, the broader index is being used as a hedge.

Key Levels to Watch:

• $CVX: Resistance at $185. If price fails to clear this on the back of today's bearish flow, look for a mean reversion toward $178.
• $NVDA: $180 is the psychological floor. Today's flow suggests whales are defending the $182.50 level.
• $IBIT: Watch for a consolidation above $38.00. The lack of bearish flow suggests a "blue sky" breakout scenario.

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EXECUTION IDEAS

1. $NVDA Mean Reversion: Given the 92% bullish premium on a down day, a long position or bull put spread targeting a return to $185-$188 aligns with whale accumulation.
2. $CVX Bearish Divergence: The massive $629M bearish premium against a green day suggests a short-term top. Consider bear call spreads at the $185/190 strikes to capitalize on institutional distribution.
3. $IBIT Momentum: Long exposure remains favored as long as bearish premium remains at or near zero. Use $37.50 as a trailing stop level.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk.